Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
