🔗 Share this article

While dawn illuminated the Amazonian city of Belém on Saturday morning, delegates remained trapped in a enclosed conference room, unaware whether it was day or night. They had been 12 hours in tense discussions, with scores ministers representing 17 groups of countries from the most vulnerable nations to the richest economies.

Frustration mounted, the air heavy as sweaty delegates faced up to the grim reality: there would not be a comprehensive agreement in Brazil. The international climate negotiations hovered near the brink of total collapse.

The major obstacle: Fossil fuels

Scientific evidence has shown for more than a century, the CO2 emissions produced by consuming fossil fuels is increasing temperatures on our planet to dangerous levels.

However, during nearly three decades of regular climate meetings, the crucial requirement to stop fossil fuel use has been referenced only once – in a agreement made two years ago at Cop28 to "shift from fossil fuels". Delegates from the Gulf states, Russia, and a few other countries were resolved this would not occur another time.

Growing momentum for change

Simultaneously, a expanding group of countries were equally determined that advancement on this issue was crucially important. They had created a proposal that was earning increasing support and made it apparent they were prepared to hold firm.

Emerging economies strongly sought to advance on securing economic resources to help them address the growing impacts of extreme weather.

Breaking point

During the night of Saturday, some delegates were willing to leave and cause breakdown. "We were close for us," stated one government representative. "I was prepared to walk away."

The breakthrough came through negotiations with Saudi Arabia. Around 6am, key negotiators split from the main group to hold a private conversation with the lead Saudi negotiator. They pressed language that would subtly reference the global commitment to "transition away from fossil fuels" made two years earlier in Dubai.

Surprising consensus

As opposed to explicitly namechecking fossil fuels, the text would refer to "the Dubai agreement". After consideration, the Saudi delegation unexpectedly agreed to the wording.

Participants collapsed into relief. Applause rang out. The deal was finalized.

With what became known as the "Brazil agreement", the world took an incremental move towards the gradual elimination of fossil fuels – a uncertain, limited step that will minimally impact the climate's ongoing trajectory towards catastrophe. But nevertheless a important shift from total inaction.

Key elements of the agreement

• Complementing the oblique commitment in the legally agreed text, countries will begin work a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels
• This will be mostly a non-binding program led by Brazil that will deliver findings next year
• Addressing the essential decreases in greenhouse gas emissions to not exceed the 1.5C limit was likewise deferred to next year
• Developing countries obtained a significant expansion to $120bn of regular financial support to help them cope with the impacts of environmental crises
• This funding will not be fully available until 2035
• Workers will benefit from a "fair adjustment program" to help people working in high-carbon industries shift to the clean economy

Mixed reactions

With global conditions hovers near the brink of climate "irreversible changes" that could devastate environments and plunge whole regions into chaos, the agreement was not the "significant advancement" needed.

"Negotiators delivered some baby steps in the proper course, but considering the scale of the climate crisis, it has not met the occasion," stated one environmental analyst.

This imperfect deal might have been the maximum achievable, given the political challenges – including a Washington administration who shunned the talks and remains wedded to oil and coal, the rising tide of rightwing populism, persistent fighting in multiple regions, extreme measures of inequality, and global economic instability.

"Major polluters – the fossil fuel giants – were at last in the crosshairs at the climate summit," says one policy convener. "This represents progress on that. The opportunity is available. Now we must convert it to a real fire escape to a protected environment."

Significant divisions revealed

Although nations were able to celebrate the gavelling through of the deal, Cop30 also highlighted deep fissures in the primary worldwide framework for addressing the climate crisis.

"International summits are consensus-based, and in a era of geopolitical divides, agreement is ever harder to reach," observed one global leader. "It would be dishonest to claim that Cop30 has achieved complete success that is needed. The difference between our current position and what research requires remains dangerously wide."

Should the world is to avoid the worst ravages of climate breakdown, the global discussions alone will fall far short.