Will the Scottish team at last end the long-standing losing streak?

Match scene
New Zealand implemented several adjustments to the side that defeated the Irish team

Autumn Nations Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks

Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, the Scottish capital When: this weekend Time: 3:10 PM GMT

Things were simpler then. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, indeed, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Match moment
Graham crossed the line in the narrow loss to New Zealand in 2022

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches recently, they've accumulated scores in the first half and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.

Jennifer Boyd
Jennifer Boyd

A seasoned entrepreneur and digital strategist with over a decade of experience in scaling tech startups and mentoring founders.